DETROIT — Let’s start with some positive news. It is late June, and the Detroit Tigers came into Thursday only four games out of first place. Not a stretch to say most fans would have been thrilled if they had been told that before the season.
All that comes with a caveat, of course. The Tigers are nine games under .500. They have had stretches of bad baseball. Their lineup is one of the weakest in the league.
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And yet, here the Tigers are, still within striking distance of the first-place Twins. Detroit took three of four from Minnesota last weekend. Now the Twins are coming to town for a three-game series, and who knows? Things might just get really interesting.
But do the Tigers have any chance of remaining in contention? Here’s a look at the factors at play:
Five reasons the Tigers could contend
The pitching should soon be at full strength
Injuries have hit the Tigers hard, but reinforcements are on the way. In a matter of weeks, the Tigers could get Eduardo Rodriguez, Tarik Skubal and Matt Manning back in their rotation. For the first time all season, the Tigers could see their pitching at full strength, with Michael Lorenzen and Matthew Boyd likely rounding out the rotation. Beau Brieske could join the bullpen, and young starters such as Reese Olson and Joey Wentz could head back to Toledo but serve as depth the Tigers once thought they had. The Tigers’ 4.88 ERA from starting pitchers ranks 25th in MLB, but there’s reason to believe that could improve significantly in July.
Riley Greene is on his way back, too
We don’t have an exact timetable for Greene’s return from a stress reaction in his left leg, but he hopes to be out of his Aircast soon and has started running and doing some light baseball activity. In a couple more weeks, he could be nearing a return. At 1.6 fWAR, Greene was easily the Tigers’ most valuable hitter before his injury and was just starting to come into his own after a torrid May. The Tigers went 16-11 in May but are 7-13 since Greene went on the injured list.
Some hitters are bound for positive regression
The Tigers’ offense has been bad, and it’s unlikely to magically transform into something better by the season’s end. But there is still reason to believe maybe the Tigers haven’t played their best stretch of baseball yet. Players such as Eric Haase (hitting .219 with only three home runs) seem due to heat up at some point. Javier Báez is finally getting going, and history leads us to believe he will hit a power surge at some point. Spencer Torkelson has underperformed his peripheral numbers all season. Despite ranking 29th in slugging, the Tigers actually rank eighth in Statcast’s hard-hit rate. Their dreadful .224 average with runners in scoring position is somewhat a product of poor situational hitting but could also be primed for positive regression, too.
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A.J. Hinch keeps getting creative
The Tigers talked all offseason about searching for advantages on the margins. It has not always been enough to overcome a weak roster, but we’ve seen Hinch do his best to manufacture production. It’s to the point that every Tigers game contains some level of fascinating baseball minutiae, seeing how Hinch will navigate his bullpen or coming to understand how his lineup is often built to coax the other team into setting up an ideal pinch-hitting scenario in the late innings. One reason the struggling Nick Maton has so often hit fifth in the order is he still serves as a chess piece to break up a string of right-handed hitters, theoretically preventing hitters such as Torkelson and Báez from seeing more tough righties out of the bullpen. The Tigers have used pinch hitters on 84 occasions this season, by far the most in baseball. It is far from an elixir (Tigers pinch hitters are actually hitting only .179), but Hinch’s in-game management is up there with the best.
Well … it’s the AL Central
The day after Greene went on the IL, the Tigers were two games under .500 and only two games behind the Twins for first place in the division. The Tigers proceeded to lose 11 of their next 12 games, including nine losses in a row. Despite that stretch, the Tigers are still only four games out of first place. The fact they have lost so little ground tells you how weak this division has been. No one is over .500, and the AL Central is basically begging for someone to win it. If there’s ever a scenario for an underdog team to get hot, surprise everybody and make the postseason, this is it. So why not the Tigers?
Five reasons the Tigers won’t contend
Just look at the run differential
Here comes the cold water. It is fun to dream about what could happen this summer in a weak division. But there are so many signs telling us the Tigers have no business remaining in this conversation for much longer. Their run differential is -70, which is the fourth worst in baseball. Despite hanging around in the standings, they have not been a very good baseball team.
The offense is still weak
Further evidence: The Tigers’ 3.79 runs per game is third worst in MLB. Even if their offense improves by season’s end, they will almost surely still rank in the bottom third of run production. Despite the positive signs Scott Harris has mentioned — more walks, fewer strikeouts, more hard-hit balls and more balls in the air — the Tigers rank 27th in batting average, 27th in on-base percentage and 29th in slugging percentage. They have only five players with an OPS above .700 and a number of anchors such as Maton (.575 OPS), Miguel Cabrera (.639) and Jonathan Schoop (.529) weighing down the lineup on a nightly basis.
There aren’t many internal solutions
If the Tigers had much faith any of their prospects could hit in the major leagues, chances are they would have already made a move. Instead, the Tigers have stuck with slumping players into late June. In Triple A, Parker Meadows and Justyn-Henry Malloy appear to be the prospects closest to the majors, but both have still had their ups and downs at the Triple-A level. Malloy is hitting .268 after his hot start and hits only .191 against left-handed pitching. Meadows is hitting .317 with an .894 OPS in June but remains susceptible to strikeouts. Colt Keith is the Tigers’ best-hitting prospect, but he remains in Double A, and from everything the Tigers have said, they’re not trying to rush him to the majors. So for the most part, the lineup you see now is the one you’re going to get going forward.
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The bullpen has been taxed
No American League team has used its bullpen more often than the Tigers in June. Detroit relievers have thrown 85 2/3 innings already this month. They could have at least one more bullpen game to cover until Manning and Skubal return to the majors. A bullpen that came into the season looking like a major concern has held together admirably with a 3.68 ERA in that span, but we’re already beginning to see some cracks in the framework. Rule-5 pick Mason Englert has been battling diminished stuff. Alex Lange has had to fight through a rough patch. Even Jason Foley struggled some with command Wednesday in his first appearance since a 28-pitch up-and-down last weekend against the Twins. Health and continued performance are no guarantees, especially given the big load this bullpen has carried so far.
They’re likely sellers at the deadline
If the Tigers remain within striking distance of first place, Harris will not enter his first trade deadline in an enviable position. Fans in Detroit are starving for an interesting, contending baseball team. Harris, though, is clearly taking the long view with this organization, and he’s not blind to the fact the Tigers need more building blocks, especially hitters. Rodriguez, assuming he is healthy, will likely be among the most in-demand names at the deadline. Players on expiring deals such as Boyd, Lorenzen and José Cisnero could be tradeable pieces, too. It might get tricky if opposing teams call about controllable relievers such as Alex Lange, Jason Foley or Will Vest. It will probably take a compelling offer for the Tigers to part with such pieces. But unless the Tigers have an unprecedented surge in July, they’re surely going to sell to some degree at the deadline. Chances are the roster in August and September is weaker than the one the Tigers have now. It’s just a matter of how much.
(Photo of Riley Greene: Duane Burleson / Getty Images)
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